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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position and Closed Debates

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government may interfere in our politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost of 2018

All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.