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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.